Infographic SDGs and PHFS-2018
This is an infographic about the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Public Health Foresight Study 2018 (PHFS-2018).
The SDGs are important international policy goals, which were developed by the United Nations. The Netherlands have also committed to these goals. The Dutch PHFS- 2018 provides insight into the most important future societal challenges for public health and healthcare in the Netherlands. These insights are useful when developing policies for the SDGs. The PHFS-2018 identifies challenges that are relevant for SDG3 (Good health and well-being), as well as for several other SDGs.
Relevant trends in the PHFS-2018 related to SDG4, quality education: school and university students experience intensifying pressure to perform. This may have consequences for their mental health.
Relevant trends in the PHFS-2018 related to SDG6, clean water and sanitation: the ageing population will lead to more medication residues in the surface water. Not much is known yet about the consequences for population health.
Relevant trends in the PHFS-2018 related to SDG8, decent work and economic growth: labour market developments such as increasing flexible working arrangements, robot automation and digitisation can have negative health effects, in particular amongst less skilled workers.
Relevant trends in the PHFS-2018 related to SDG10, reduces inequalities: smoking is declining less rapidly and obesity is increasing more rapidly amongst people with a low socio-economic status.
Relevant trends in the PHFS-2018 related to SDG11, sustainable cities and communities: cities will become bigger and busier. This will lead to more noise and air pollution, and decreased availability of green spaces and water for relaxation and recreation.
Relevant trends in the PHFS-2018 related to SDG12, responsible production and consumption: more micro-plastics and nano-particles will enter our environment. The health effects they might cause are still unclear at the moment.
Relevant trends in the PHFS-2018 related to SDG13, climate action: offsetting the health effects of climate change requires the effective deployment of green spaces and water in the living environment.
Relevant trends in the PHFS-2018 related to SDG17, partnerships for the goals: the challenges we face require an integrative and personal approach, as well as the involvement of many different parties and wide-ranging collaboration across the lines of public health and healthcare.
All the trends described above affect SDG3, good health and well-being. Below, challenges from the PHFS-2018 that are relevant for several sub-goals of SDG3 are described.
Sub-goal: reduce premature mortality from chronic diseases. Relevant trends in the PHFS-2018:
in 2040, cardiovascular diseases and cancer remain important causes of death. In addition, due to improved treatments for these diseases and the ageing population, dementia is getting more important as a cause of death. So far, knowledge on how to prevent dementia is limited.
Number of deaths caused by cancer.
- In 2015: 46.000
- In 2040: 53.000
Number of deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases.
- In 2015: 39.000
- In 2040: 34.000
Number of deaths caused by dementia.
- In 2015: 14.000
- In 2040: 40.000
Sub-goal: combat infectious diseases. Relevant trends in the PHFS-2018: antibiotic resistance is an issue that we need to continue to keep a close eye on. One potential consequence of increasing antibiotic resistance is that it may no longer be possible to effectively treat infections. This can have a major impact on population health. The declining immunisation rate also deserves constant attention. Declining immunisation coverage will increase the risk of future outbreaks.
Sub-goal: improve mental health and well-being. Relevant trends in the PHFS-2018: mental disorders will continue to occur frequently. In 2040, they will be the third ranking cause of burden of disease after cancer and cardiovascular diseases. The number of people aged 75 and over, who feel lonely, will increase from over 600,000 in 2015 to over 1.3 million in 2040.
Number of people aged 75 and over who feel lonely.
- In 2015: 600.000
- In 2040: 1,3 million
This is an increase of 117 percent.
Sub-goal: focus on prevention. Relevant trends in the PHFS-2018: in the future, fewer people are smoking. Nevertheless, smoking remains the main cause of mortality and morbidity. Almost 10 percent of the total disease burden can be attributed to smoking. The percentage of Dutch adults who weigh more than recommended will increase from 49 percent in 2015 to 62 percent in 2040.
Percentage of people who are overweight.
- In 2015: 49 percent
- In 2040: 62 percent
This is an increase of 27 percent.
Sub-goal: safeguard the accessibility of healthcare. Relevant trends in the PHFS-2018: the ageing population will lead to more pressure on the healthcare system. At the same time, the number of people who can provide informal care is declining.
Number of 50-64 year-olds per person 85+ (informal care givers)
- In 2015: 10
- In 2040: 4
This is a decrease of 60 percent.
Sub-goal: safeguard the financial sustainability of healthcare. Relevant trends in the PHFS-2018: healthcare expenditures will double to 174 billion euros in 2040. A third of this growth is the result of the ageing population and population growth, while two-thirds can be attributed to other factors such as technology.
- In 2015: 86 billion euros
- Increase in 2040 due to ageing population: 29 billion euros
- Increase in 2040 due to other factors: 59 billion euros
- Total healthcare expenditures in 2040: 174 billion euros
The PHFS-2018 shows how our public health and healthcare will develop over the next 25 years if we pursue our current course and do not take any additional measures.
For more information, visit www.vtv2018.nl/en